Advertisers Saw This Crisis Coming In The Spring…

Wednesday, October, 1, 2008 by Mel Phillips.

Proving once again that the folks who spend advertising money are smarter than the Wall Street crowd, a new economic study shows that dire predictions were made back in the spring.  Before the current crisis was even hinted at, ad budgets were anticipated to shrink 33% over the next 6 months.  This prediction was made in April/May.  With the exception of online spending, slashes were expected in radio (33%), broadcast TV (30%), cable TV (20%), magazines (29%) and newspapers which will soon be solely used to wrap fish and doggie doo, was expected to implode a whopping 44% .  Online was only expected to dip 4%…

This study - the Media Economy Report was conducted by Advertiser Perceptions Inc.  Their spring 2008 data had a base of 1,811 advertising executives.  According to TNS Media Intelligence, the U.S. ad economy slipped 1.6% in the first half of 2008, the second quarter alone dropped 3.7% and the first month of the third quarter declined even more…

Okay, now what?  Well for one thing, Marc Goldstein of GroupM North America is predicting that many companies will not cut back on advertising in 2009, despite the troubled economic conditions.  Of course his address was made at an Advertising Week Conference to people looking for a lift in spirits.  But he also said this, “every marketer will be in for a ‘rocky road’.”  It’s time to get out your hip boots and shovel… 

10 Timeline Memories:

1. 1903] World Series #1: The visiting Pittsburgh Pirates beat the Boston Americans 7-3 in the first World Series game…
2. 1908] A-Ford-able?: Henry Ford introduces the Model T to the market for $825…
3. 1952] Premiered on this date: “This Is Your Life“, hosted by Ralph Edwards. The biopic series will air in its original format for 9 seasons…1955] “The Honeymooners” kicks off 16 successful seasons…1962] “The Lucy Show“, featuring Lucille Ball as Lucy Carmichael, runs for 12 years…1962] Johnny Carson debuts as regular host of NBC’s “Tonight Show”…
4. 1961] Roger that: Yankees slugger Roger Maris hits home run #61 at Yankee Stadium, breaking Babe Ruth’s season record of 60 in 1927…
5. 1964] It’s called the 1st amendment: The Free Speech Movement is launched at the University of California at Berkeley…
6. 1967] The Impossible Dream: Those of us fortunate enough to have witnessed this will never forget it: The Boston Red Sox Impossible Dream comes true as they clinch their 1st AL pennant since 1946 on the last day of the season. With a 3-way tie between Boston, Detroit and Minnesota, Boston beat the Twins and the Tigers lose, giving the pennant to the Red Sox.
7. 1971] Eggpot: Walt Disney World opens in Orlando. Ten years later, to the day, EPCOT opens (1981). EPCOT stands for Experimental Prototype Community of Tomorrow or by this symbol: $…
8. 1975] The Thrilla in Manilla: Heavyweight champ Muhammad Ali retains his title with a TKO of Joe Frazier in the 15th round…
9. 1993] Every parents’ nightmare: 12-year old Polly Klaas is abducted from her California home. Her body is found more than 2 months later…
10. 1996] Gotcha: A federal grand jury indicts Unabomber suspect Theodore Kaczynski for a 1994 mail bomb slaying…

Music Memories:

• 1964] Released on this date: “The Beatles vs. The Four Seasons” LP (on Vee Jay)…
• 1970] O solo mio: Curtis Mayfield leaves the Impressions for a highly successful solo career…

“Happy Birthday…happy birthday“:

Randy Quaid (58), Annie Lebovitz (60), Stephen Collins (61), Rod Carew (63), Stella Stevens (72), Julie Andrews (73), Tom Bosley (81), Roger Williams (84), Jimmy Carter (84) and actor/giant tomato grower James Whitmore (87)…

Timeline Countdown: The MLB playoffs begin today and 22 days until the World Series opener…

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