The Worst Is Over But Not Until 2011…

Tuesday, July, 14, 2009 by Mel Phillips.

You’re probably as puzzled as I am in hearing an advertising forecaster say that the worst is over for the U.S. ad slump but not until well into 2011.  I think we’ll probably have about 8 seasons until then — that’s my forecast.  Will Magna’s forecast about better days in two plus years spur more business — I doubt it.  Magna, a unit of the Interpublic Group of Companies estimates that we’ll take our lumps until the second half of 2011 when we’ll finally reach overall growth.  And what’s the radio forecast?  Read on…

Radio advertising is expected to fall 21 (%) percent this year to $14 billion with network and satellite radio declining less.  Magna’s Brian Wieser says marquee talk show names which include celebrities, should help drive network radio growth.  Until 2011 radio will be eating dirt, but apparently not as much as newspapers.  “Newspapers don’t have a likelihood of recovery for the foreseeable future” as print readers age.  Wieser describes the industry as one in “terminal decline.”…

Wieser makes us wiser and his forecast proves that things could always be worse.  Radio is on the ropes but it’s not getting the mandatory eight count like newspapers.  Small victories count too…

10 Timeline Memories: 

1. 1881]  A legend dies: Outlaw William H. Bonney Jr., alias Billy the Kid is shot and killed by Sheriff Pat Garrett…
2. 1921]  Showing who’s boss: Nicola Sacco and Bartolomeo Vanzetti are convicted in Dedham (MA) of killing a shoe company paymaster and his guard.  They will be executed in 1927…
3. 1946] Dr. Spock makes a house call: “The Common Sense Book of Baby and Child Care” is published.  To date, the book has sold over 50 million copies with no end in sight…
4. 1958] The fun begins in Iraq: The army of Iraq overthrows the monarchy…
5. 1965] No need to get the red eye out: American space probe Mariner 4 makes a fly-by of Mars and sends back photos…
6. 1966] Killing Spree: 25-year old Richard Speck goes on a rampage in a Chicago dormitory killing 8 student nurses. Speck will die of a heart attack in prison in 1991. No one claims his body which is cremated…
7. 1970] All-Star highlight: In one of the most famous of all All-Star game plays, Pete Rose bowls over catcher Ray Fosse to score. To this day, Rose brags about his takeout of Fosse…
8. 1976] Mr. Peanut:  Jimmy Carter wins the Democratic presidential nomination at the party’s convention in New York…
9. 1999] School busing busted: Race-based school busing in Boston ends after 25 years…
10. 2004] Not that there’s anything wrong with that:  The Senate votes 50-48 against a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage…

Music Memories:

• Number One on this date: 20 Years ago (1989) “If You Don’t Know Me By Now” - Simply Red…25 Years ago (1984) “When Doves Cry” - Prince…30 Years ago (1979) “Bad Girls” - Donna Summer…

“Happy Birthday…happy birthday“: Matthew (”Lost”) Fox (43), Tommy Mottola (60), Vincent (”Sopranos”) Pastore (63), Rosie Grier (77), Polly Bergen (79), Harry Dean Stanton (83) & Dale Robertson (86)…

Timeline Countdown: Tonight is the MLB All-Star Game, 9 days until NFL training camps open and 55 days until Labor Day…

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